My wishful predictions for 2005

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For the last couple of years I’ve done Web services wish lists (2003 and 2004) and we’re already seeing the usual industry predictions for 2005. I thought I would combine them this year and offer some probabilities of their liklihood, a la Gartner. (Key: 0 = no chance, 1 = a sure bet, with values in between allowed)

  1. The pressure on Sun to stop playing word games around open sourcing Java will escalate. (.9 probability)
  2. By the end of 2005, a commonly accepted definition of the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) will emerge, though we’ll still see overly simplistic implementations using the term. (.8)
  3. The volume of public technical arguments will increase around whether Business Process Execution Language (BPEL) support belongs within an ESB implementation or is accessible via a service on the bus. (.8) Eventually people will decide it doesn’t make much difference. (.9)
  4. We’ll see a lot of stories in April about the five year anniversary of SOAP 1.1 and how it has changed the IT world, but relatively few in September about our five years with UDDI. (.8)
  5. By June we’ll have analysts and the press discussing the “fracturing of the open source application server market” when users will start choosing among JBoss, Apache Geronimo, and Jonas/Red Hat. (.7)
  6. Internet Explorer will continue to lose share to Firefox, but Thunderbird will face a tougher time against Outlook, especially for business users. However, Outlook will lose some share of non-business users to Google Gmail (.7)
  7. The “next big thing” for Web services standards will be in vertical industries, though solid if non-sexy work on horizontal standards will continue. (.6)
  8. Developers will start to think of themselves as “web services developers” instead of “Java developers” or “.Net developers”. (.5) (see older blog entry)
  9. Organizational bylaws and intellectual property rules for standards organizations will themselves get standardized, thereby greatly simplifying how companies can work in multiple organizations and deploy more technologists than attorneys. (.1)
  10. All known incompatibilities and architectural differences between .Net and Java will be resolved by Microsoft and Sun and the result will be donated to open source. (0)

I hope you all have a great 2005!

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